- black swan
- n.An extremely rare and unexpected event that has significant consequences.—black-swan adj.Example Citations:Black swans are, of course, those highly improbable but painfully consequential events that strike from the blue — or from the streets of Cairo, or from an offshore oil rig, or from a poorly designed car part. They can destroy a company's reputation, cripple its financial performance, and perhaps even kill it outright. Because they are rare and almost impossible to predict, black-swan events tend to fall outside the scope of most companies' risk-management programs (assuming a company has such a program at all).—Russ Banham, " Disaster Averted?: http://cfosreact.com/article.cfm/14564959/c_14567388?f=TodayInFinance_Inside," CFO Magazine, April 1, 2011Like the risk models that failed then, the standard deviation in a Sharpe ratio would use historic data on volatility and assume a normal distribution for market moves. So-called black swan events (rare and unexpected), like America's first ever steep decline in house prices, can and will occur.—Rob Cox and Antony Currie, " Treating Traders Like Hedge Funds: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/business/13views.html?src=busln," The New York Times, May 12, 2011Earliest Citation:Solon also had the intuition of a problem that has obsessed science for the past three centuries. It is called the problem of induction. I call it in this book the black swan or the rare event.—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled By Randomness: https://www.randomhouse.com/book/176225/fooled-by-randomness-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb/9781400067930/?view=print, W. W. Norton, October 1, 2001Notes:I should mention that there's another sense of the phrase black swan that refers to something extremely rare, and that sense is several hundred years old.Related Words: Categories:Of course, if you live in New Zealand or Australia black swans aren't rare at all; white ones are.I don't think the old sense is really a different sense of 'black swan' - when people started using 'black swan' in the sense you mention above, I definitely did not perceive it as a shift in meaning - and I was using 'black swan' to refer to such events well before 2001.The sense of 'black swan' referring to events being unpredictable (as opposed, perhaps, to rare objects) goes back to the literature on the problem of induction from at least the early 20th century.I don't think the old sense is really a different sense of 'black swan' - when people started using 'black swan' in the sense you mention above, I definitely did not perceive it as a shift in meaning - and I was using 'black swan' to refer to such events well before 2001.The sense of 'black swan' referring to events being unpredictable (as opposed, perhaps, to rare objects) goes back to the literature on the problem of induction from at least the early 20th century.
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Black Swan — bezeichnet: Black Swan (Film), US amerikanischer Film Black Swan Klasse (Sloop), britisches Militärschiff Black Swan Project, kommerzielles Schatzsucheprojekt Der schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse (The Black Swan:… … Deutsch Wikipedia
Black Swan — Le Black Swan est le premier timbre émis par la colonie britannique d’Australie Occidentale en 1854. Il représente un cygne et est de couleur noire, d’où son nom anglais signifiant « cygne noir ». Sommaire 1 Description 2 Continuation … Wikipédia en Français
Black Swan — This article is about the bird. For the 2010 film, see Black Swan (film). For other uses, see Black Swan (disambiguation). Black Swan Conservation status … Wikipedia
black swan — noun large Australian swan having black plumage and a red bill • Syn: ↑Cygnus atratus • Hypernyms: ↑swan • Member Holonyms: ↑Cygnus, ↑genus Cygnus * * * noun : an Australian swan ( … Useful english dictionary
Black swan — Cette page d’homonymie répertorie les différents sujets et articles partageant un même nom. Black swan signifie en anglais « cygne noir ». Black Swan est le premier timbre émis par la colonie britannique d’Australie Occidentale en 1854… … Wikipédia en Français
Black Swan — An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader. Black… … Investment dictionary
black swan — noun 1》 a mainly black swan, native to Australia and introduced widely elsewhere. [Cygnus atratus.] 2》 archaic something extremely rare … English new terms dictionary
Black Swan — juodoji gulbė statusas T sritis zoologija | vardynas atitikmenys: lot. Cygnus atratus angl. Black Swan vok. Schwarzschwan … Paukščių anatomijos terminai
black swan — juodoji gulbė statusas T sritis zoologija | vardynas atitikmenys: lot. Chenopis atrata; Cygnus atratus angl. black swan vok. Schwarzschwan, m rus. чёрный лебедь, m pranc. cygne noir, m ryšiai: platesnis terminas – gulbės … Paukščių pavadinimų žodynas
black swan — noun a) An Australian swan whose feathers are black. b) An occurrence believed impossible or not to exist. Syn: Cygnus atratus, Chenopis atratus … Wiktionary